The Baseball Nerd
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Data-driven MLB analysis for fans who want to understand what’s really happening inside the box score. Advanced stats, proprietary models, and baseball stories. Numbers not feelings.
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Links open at The Baseball Nerd- Shohei Ohtani Is 3-for-20. The Dodgers Offense Is Worse Than That
The four-time MVP is the face of an NLCS hole, but he is one number on a list that gets uglier the further down you read.
Summary from publisher feedRead at The Baseball Nerd → - The Championship Series has Started, and the Numbers Say There is a Challenge Coming
Can Cleveland buy enough time for its rotation to recover? Can Milwaukee force the Dodgers away from their biggest advantage?
Summary from publisher feedRead at The Baseball Nerd → - When Crawling to First Base is the Only Option
A Sunday Story about opportunity, adversity and never being bitter even in the face of losing everything
Summary from publisher feedRead at The Baseball Nerd → - Gavin Williams Is the Obvious Pick in Game 5. One Number Says It Is Worth a Pause.
248 strikeouts, 28 home runs, and a Game 5 with no tomorrow.
Summary from publisher feedRead at The Baseball Nerd → - Brewers vs Dodgers NLCS Preview: Who Has the Better Chance to Win?
Milwaukee has the record, the park and a lineup that moves runners. Los Angeles has the better bats.
Summary from publisher feedRead at The Baseball Nerd → - The Braves Had the Better Arm on the Mound
The Braves lost NLDS Game 4 on a pitching change, and the data behind it points the other way.
Summary from publisher feedRead at The Baseball Nerd → - Cam Schlittler Chased Off the Mound at The Trop
The Rays batters saw the ball really well and the Yankees defense was really bad.
Summary from publisher feedRead at The Baseball Nerd → - Gerrit Cole ALDS Game 1: Why the Aranda HR Wasn't Luck
One run in five innings looks like bad luck. Four pillars of data say the swing that beat Cole had been building for a month.
Summary from publisher feedRead at The Baseball Nerd → - Eight Teams Survived. The Numbers Say the Next Problems Are Different
The Wild Card round answered last week’s questions. Postseason Bases Gained and CSR now show us what matters as the Division Series takes over.
Summary from publisher feedRead at The Baseball Nerd → - 126 Pitches. Zero Runs. The Game He Wouldn't Leave
A Sunday Story about a a turn-around, a pitcher who didn’t care how much he had thrown, and how it became the greatest Game Seven ever pitched.
Summary from publisher feedRead at The Baseball Nerd → - Misiorowski Has the Best CSR on Record. I Still Don't Think He Decides Game 1
Four singles in seven innings was all the Padres got off Jacob Misiorowski in May, and Milwaukee still lost. …
Summary from publisher feedRead at The Baseball Nerd → - The White Sox Closer Is 0-3 Against Cleveland. He Is 7-0 Against Everyone Else.
Two of the three losses ended on a Rocchio swing in the ninth. ALDS Game 1 is at Progressive Field, where Cleveland keeps getting the last at-bat.
Summary from publisher feedRead at The Baseball Nerd → - Everyone Is Previewing Nola and Holmes. CSR Says the Best Reliever on Either Roster Is the One Nobody Can Promise Will Pitch.
Both clubs have lost a game from the bullpen this week, and the arms still standing do not match the story you have been told.
Summary from publisher feedRead at The Baseball Nerd → - The 2026 MVP Was 48th in June. One Number Saw Him Coming.
Pete Crow-Armstrong finished the season as the most valuable hitter in baseball. In early June he was buried on the second page of the board, and one metric had already started walking him to the top.
Summary from publisher feedRead at The Baseball Nerd → - The Division Winners Earned It. The Wild Card Bats Might Steal It Anyway.
Nothing is handed to any team, and today's games set the tone for the whole postseason. There are favorites, and Bases Gained tells us who.
Summary from publisher feedRead at The Baseball Nerd →